GOLD JUMPED ON GDP, SLIPPED ON TARIFF RULING

Gold jumped over $25 an ounce following the release of U.S. economic reports, then slipped when the Supreme Court made a ruling on President Trump’s tariffs. Even with the drop, the yellow metal is sticking over the $5000 an ounce mark.

The Supreme Court struck down a chunk of the President’s tariff agenda. The majority ruled six to three that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, the law that undergirds these import duties, “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.” Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.

America’s GDP annual rate rose just 1.4%, according to the Commerce Department, well below the Dow Jones forecasted 2.5% gain. The department estimated that the government shutdown, probably took about 1 percentage point off. At the same time, the personal consumption expenditures price index shows inflation holding firm in December, according to a gauge most closely watched by Fed officials that increased 3% from a year ago.

The central bank kept interest rates unchanged last month after three previous rate cuts. Minutes of the January Fed meeting, which came out Wednesday, showed that several Fed officials anticipate additional rate cuts if inflation drops, though others project holding rates stead for “some time.” Lower interest rates are considered bullish for gold, making the yellow metal a more attractive alternate investment.

April gold futures fell 0.2% Thursday to settle at $4,997.40 an ounce on Comex and is down 1% so far this week. U.S. financial markets were closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday, so metals trades Monday posted Tuesday on Comex. Bullion surged 9.3% in January after rising 2% in December and gaining 6.5% in November. It rallied 64% last year.  The April contract is currently up $36.90 (+0.74%) an ounce to $5034.30 and the spot price is $5034.40.

Liquidity was thin all week, making price moves more volatile, as markets in China, the world’s biggest gold consuming country, are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Haven demand kept gold prices elevated near $5,000 an ounce amid reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing strikes against Iran. The yellow metal is a traditional hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty. 

More than 93% of investors are betting that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged again in March, according to figures tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool. About 6% expect another 25 basis point cut. The Fed reduced interest rates for a third consecutive time in December to 3.50% to 3.75%. The central bank began raising interest rates in March 2022 to fight inflation, ultimately imposing increases of by 5.25 percentage points before beginning rate cuts in 2024. 

The Fed has an inflation target of 2%. In addition to the PCE index, U.S. GDP figures for the forth quarter and full year 2025 are also due out Friday and will provide the latest indicators on the state of the economy. 

March silver futures rose 3 cents Thursday to settle at $77.63 an ounce on Comex, but the front month contract is down 0.4% so far this week. It touched a record above $115 in January. Silver gained 11% last month after climbing 24% in December and increasing 19% in November. It rose 141% last year. The March contract is currently up $3.121 (+4.02%) an ounce to $80.755 and the spot price is $81.03.

Spot palladium decreased 2.5% Thursday to $1,688.00 an ounce and is down 1.8% this week. Palladium rose 2.4% in January after increasing 11% in December and adding 0.5% in November. Palladium gained 74% last year. Currently, the spot price is up $83.30 an ounce to $2144.00.

Spot platinum declined 1.5% Thursday to $2,063.40 an ounce and has decreased 1.3% this week. It gained 1.4% in January after surging 22% in December and climbing 4.7% in November. Platinum increased 122% in 2025.  The spot price is currently up $82.70 an ounce to $2143.40.

Metalstacks is a private club focused on the study and discussion of the precious metals industry. The views, opinions, and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of the author(s) and are not intended to be a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific metal, security, or investment product. The authors and the Metalstacks Precious Metals Club are not registered financial advisors, brokers, or dealers. Always consult with a qualified financial, investment, tax, or legal professional before making any investment decisions. Your personal financial situation and goals are unique. Investing in precious metals and related assets involves significant risk. The value of investments can fluctuate, and you may lose some or all of your principal investment. Past performance of any asset, including gold and silver, is not indicative of future results. By reading this article, you acknowledge and agree that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.