Gold & Silver: Built for Uncertain Times
Market Drivers
Gold has surged to a new all-time high of $3,660 per ounce in U.S. dollar terms, finally breaking out of the sideways range that held since April 2025. The yellow metal is now up 45% year-over-year and has nearly doubled in two years. Silver has mirrored the momentum, reaching $41.35 per ounce, a 45% annual gain and an 80% increase over two years.
According to Heraeus and Dr. Thorsten Polleit’s Boom & Bust Report, this explosive move is less about direction and more about the speed of appreciation. Gold and silver have historically tracked long-term trendlines, but the current rally has pushed both metals well above their historic averages. By linear trend models, gold sits 42% ($1,550/oz) above its 21st-century baseline, or 30% ($1,100/oz) above when measured against exponential growth trends.
The question for investors: are prices simply overheated, or are we witnessing a structural revaluation of monetary metals?
Gold: Insurance Premium Rising
- Spot Price: $3,634.35/oz (+1.34% daily)
- Record High: $3,660/oz
- YoY Performance: +45%
- Two-Year Gain: +90%
- Deviation from Trend: +30% to +42%
Despite being technically “expensive” relative to historic averages, gold is being re-rated as a monetary insurance asset. Central banks are leading the charge, with global gold-backed ETFs adding 397 tonnes (+12.3%) in H1 2025 and bar/coin demand up 6.4% YoY to 631 tonnes.
Political risk is amplifying the bid. Concerns over U.S. central bank independence have intensified, coupled with ongoing pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates. Analysts warn that undermining the Fed could spark higher inflation, weaker equities and bonds, and further erosion of the U.S. dollar’s global role — conditions that strongly favor gold.
Silver: Central Banks Step In
- Spot Price: $41.41/oz (+1.03% daily)
- Resistance: ~$41.40/oz
- YoY Performance: +45%
- Two-Year Gain: +80%
Silver, historically overlooked by central banks, is starting to earn official recognition. Russia recently announced plans to acquire $535.5 million in silver over the next three years, signaling a potential new wave of reserve diversification. Combined with booming industrial demand from solar, electrification, and AI technologies, silver’s structural case is strengthening.
Outlook
- Gold: Heraeus and Polleit expect prices to advance toward $4,000/oz in the near term (+9% from current levels). In a sustained revaluation regime, gold could overshoot historic trends, with scenarios of $5,500/oz by 2026 not off the table.
- Silver: Having cleared the $34 resistance zone, silver is positioned to push toward $42–$48/oz in the medium term, with longer-term projections reaching $70–$80/oz if institutional and industrial demand accelerate.
Investor Takeaway
Gold and silver are no longer just cyclical trades — they are proving their role as monetary hedges for systemic risk. While both metals are extended above long-term averages, the shift in global monetary trust, central bank accumulation, and the structural forces of de-dollarization point to a new valuation regime.
Positioning Strategy
- Gold: Accumulate on pullbacks toward $3,500–$3,550. Maintain long-term core positions for wealth preservation.
- Silver: Scale in gradually, watching for a confirmed breakout above $41.50. Medium-term targets are $42–$48, with longer-term potential toward $70–$80 by 2026.
MetalStacks Members: These are the moments precious metals were built for. With trust in fiat money wavering and central banks themselves moving into gold and silver, the case for holding hard assets has never been stronger. Secure your positions now through MetalStacks Dealer Direct access and align your portfolio with the next phase of the global metals supercycle.