Metalstacks Brief: November 20, 2025 – Metals Pause After Jobs Report; Analysts Eye $4,000 Support

Precious metals are taking a modest step back today, Thursday, November 20, 2025. This short-term correction is a direct reaction to the release of the delayed September US jobs report, which came in stronger than expected. The key takeaway for investors is that the broader, long-term bullish trend remains firmly intact, with today providing a crucial opportunity for strategic entry.

Today’s Spot Prices (USD per Troy Ounce)

(Prices are approximate, reflecting movement as of mid-afternoon EST on Nov 20, 2025.)

Key Market Drivers: Jobs Report Dampens Rate Cut Hopes

1. The Hawkish Jobs Data (The Short-Term Headwind)

The U.S. Labor Department's delayed September employment figures showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 119,000, significantly beating the market's subdued expectations. This stronger-than-expected reading suggests the U.S. economy may be more resilient than previously thought.

• Impact: A strong labor market typically reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Since gold and silver perform best when rates are falling, the market immediately priced in lower odds for a December rate cut, leading to today’s retreat.

2. Fed Minutes Signal Discord (The Long-Term Tail Wind)

The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes, released yesterday, offered a mixed picture. While Chair Powell maintained a cautious stance on future cuts, the minutes revealed "strongly differing views" among members regarding the timing and necessity of easing policy.

• Impact: This internal division signals that the Fed's unified front is cracking. As inflation concerns persist and economic risks grow (such as the high debt-to-GDP ratio), the internal pressure for eventual rate cuts will build, supporting the long-term outlook for gold.

3. UBS Raises Gold Forecast to $4,900

Providing a major counter-signal to today's minor dip, global banking giant UBS raised its upside target for gold to $4,900 per ounce by Q2 2026.

• Rationale: Their forecast is based on the expectation of eventual Fed rate cuts, persistent geopolitical risks, and strong, unrelenting demand from central banks and ETF investors. This affirms the view that today’s weakness is merely a pause in a much larger uptrend.

Your Metalstacks Action Plan

Today’s moderate dip is the classic response to short-term data that doesn't align with the market's desired narrative. However, the multi-year macro trends (debt, inflation, central bank buying) that drove gold to the $4,100+ range remain firmly in place.

• Strategic Opportunity: The market retreat provides an excellent window to increase physical holdings at prices comfortably below the recent highs, securing better entry points for the next major rally.
• Focus on Silver: Silver's current price remains highly attractive for collectors given its historic price ceiling was recently broken and its long-term industrial demand is only accelerating.

Metalstacks is a private club focused on the study and discussion of the precious metals industry. The views, opinions, and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of the author(s) and are not intended to be a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific metal, security, or investment product. The authors and the Metalstacks Precious Metals Club are not registered financial advisors, brokers, or dealers. Always consult with a qualified financial, investment, tax, or legal professional before making any investment decisions. Your personal financial situation and goals are unique. Investing in precious metals and related assets involves significant risk. The value of investments can fluctuate, and you may lose some or all of your principal investment. Past performance of any asset, including gold and silver, is not indicative of future results. By reading this article, you acknowledge and agree that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.