STACKS REPORT - GOLD BACK TO THE $5000 MARK

Gold back to the $5000 mark, buoyed by cooler inflation data. Silver also rebounded early Friday as investors bought both metals following a selloff in the previous session.

January’s consumer price index rose 2.4% from the same time in 2025, down 0.3 percentage point from the prior month and the lowest since May 2025. Economists had forecast an annual rate of 2.5%. The lower than expected reading helped boost the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the futures market.

The central bank closely watches both inflation and the labor market when setting interest rates. The consumer price index report is due Friday. The delayed U.S. jobs report for January came out Wednesday and showed stronger than expected job growth, which may allow the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for longer.

April gold futures fell 2.9% Thursday to settle at $4,948.40 an ounce on Comex, and the front month contract lost 0.6% in the first four days of the week. Bullion surged 9.3% in January after rising 2% in December and gaining 6.5% in November. It rallied 64% last year.  The April contract is currently up $70.50 (+1.42%) an ounce to $5018.90 and the spot price is $4977.00.

March silver futures dropped 9.8% Thursday to settle at $75.68 an ounce on Comex, and the front month contract slid 1.6% so far this week. It touched a record above $115 in January. Silver gained 11% last month after climbing 24% in December and increasing 19% in November. It rose 141% last year. The March contract is currently up $1.818 (+2.40%) an ounce to $77.500 and the spot price is $77.83.

The U.S. added 130,000 jobs last month, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, topping economists’ consensus expectations of 70,000 jobs. The unemployment rate came in at 4.3%, just below the estimate of 4.4% But both the November and December jobs numbers were revised lower, by a combined 17,000.

The economic indicator was originally due out at the end of last week, but was delayed by the Labor Department because of the partial federal government shutdown.

The Fed last month kept benchmark interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% after reducing rates at the previous three policy meetings. The central bank began raising interest rates in March 2022 to fight inflation, ultimately imposing increases of by 5.25 percentage points before beginning rate cuts in 2024.

More than 90% of investors are betting that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged again in March, according to figures tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool. About 9% expect another 25 basis point cut. The Fed reduced interest rates for a third consecutive time in December to 3.50% to 3.75%.

Gold has been trading on either side of the record $5,000 an ounce threshold in recent weeks, amid strong volatility. In addition to economic news, it has gained strength on a weaker dollar and anticipated buying ahead of the Lunar New Year, which begins next week. China is the world’s largest gold consuming country. But margin calls and profit taking have spurred some steep drops in the precious metal.

Spot palladium decreased 4.6% Thursday to $1,663.50 an ounce and has lost 4.5% so far this week. Palladium rose 2.4% in January after increasing 11% in December and adding 0.5% in November. Palladium gained 74% last year. Currently, the spot price is up $12.50 an ounce to $1674.00.

Spot platinum declined 5.4% Thursday to $2,031.30 an ounce and has decreased 4.1% this week. It gained 1.4% in January after surging 22% in December and climbing 4.7% in November. Platinum increased 122% in 2025.  The spot price is currently up $36.50 an ounce to $2066.20.

Metalstacks is a private club focused on the study and discussion of the precious metals industry. The views, opinions, and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of the author(s) and are not intended to be a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific metal, security, or investment product. The authors and the Metalstacks Precious Metals Club are not registered financial advisors, brokers, or dealers. Always consult with a qualified financial, investment, tax, or legal professional before making any investment decisions. Your personal financial situation and goals are unique. Investing in precious metals and related assets involves significant risk. The value of investments can fluctuate, and you may lose some or all of your principal investment. Past performance of any asset, including gold and silver, is not indicative of future results. By reading this article, you acknowledge and agree that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.